Senate Election 2020 Thread (2 Viewers)

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superchuck500

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So there are 35 Senate seats contested in November. Use this thread to talk about them.

Here's a tracker site:

 

MT15

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They have zero shame.

That tracker site has Collins in Maine as a toss up, I thought she was very significantly behind?
 
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superchuck500

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MT15

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When you only look at polling firms with a B ranking or above at 538, it looks worse for Collins, although the most recent one is Aug 18

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Richard

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Conventional wisdom has had the Democrats gaining enough to flip the Senate by winning races in Arizona, Maine, Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina. Democrats are also holding out hopes of turning the races in Montana, Michigan, South Carolina and one of the Georgia seats in their favor. The sheer numbers of competitive races would appear to agree with them. Republicans will almost certainly win that Georgia seat and South Carolina and the Montana race has held a fairly consistent margin, even though it has always been close. I agree that Democrats will likely win Maine and Arizona, but the races in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Michigan and sometimes Montana have either fluctuated quite a bit or tightened. I think it may be early yet for the Democrats to claim victory and a lot can happen between now and Nov. 3.

Yes, there is the potential for Democrats to pick up a significant number of seats. In addition to the first five mentioned above, it is possible that Bullock could win Montana and Perdue could lose his lead in Georgia. But right now, if I was handicapping it, I would say that Gardner and Ernst hold onto their seats in Colorado and Iowa. It could all come down to whether Steve Bullock wins Montana or Tillis wins North Carolina. My guess sitting here today is that the Republicans will retain a 51-49 edge.

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CoolBrees

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Only disagreement I have is that there is no way Cory Gardner holds on to his seat in Colorado. Like zero.

Hickenlooper will win there by at least 9 points.
 

Richard

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Only disagreement I have is that there is no way Cory Gardner holds on to his seat in Colorado. Like zero.

Hickenlooper will win there by at least 9 points.
You could be right. I was basing my thoughts on Colorado on the poll that came out Thursday showing that Gardner had made up significant ground. That poll showed Gardner down five points (just outside of the poll's margin of error of around four points) and over 40 percent of Colorado voters don’t identify as affiliated with either party. Hickenlooper has a large advantage among unaffiliated voters, but those probably represent the bulk of those moving toward Gardner. Just my view of that state at this point. Gardner could be back to 11 points down in the next poll and I will feel differently about his chances.
 
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MT15

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This would be the second time I’ve seen a clip of him on Fox begging for money. He feels entitled to keep his seat, seemingly, and thinks his hypocrisy will go unnoticed. The polling trend isn’t in his favor, and although he might still keep his seat, I fervently wish he will not. His contempt for his constituents is obvious.
 

Booker

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You could be right. I was basing my thoughts on Colorado on the poll that came out Thursday showing that Gardner had made up significant ground. That poll showed Gardner down five points (just outside of the poll's margin of error of around four points) and over 40 percent of Colorado voters don’t identify as affiliated with either party. Hickenlooper has a large advantage among unaffiliated voters, but those probably represent the bulk of those moving toward Gardner. Just my view of that state at this point. Gardner could be back to 11 points down in the next poll and I will feel differently about his chances.
There's no way Gardner wins in Colorado. He's been running a ton of ads attacking Hickenlooper for ethical violations (while governor he accepted "gifts" in the form of a plane ride and a limo ride, for which he was fined $2700) but is still down at least 5 points in every poll.

He lucked out in 2014, when Democratic turnout was low and his incumbent opponent's only message was that Gardner was anti-abortion, but he'll be swimming upstream this year. Hillary Clinton won Colorado in 2016, Jared Polis was elected governor in a blowout in 2018, and this year Biden is out polling Trump by 10 points in every poll. He's toast and he knows it.

The race in Colorado that could be interesting is the one for the western slope Congressional seat. It's generally been a safe Republican seat, but the incumbent lost in the primary to a QAnon proponent, so the Democrat might actually have a chance.
 
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SaulGoodmanEsq

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The Democrats should flip Maine, Colorado, and Arizona. The Republicans will absolutely flip Alabama. Whether the Democrats can get to 50 (or beyond) is less certain. Iowa, Montana, and North Carolina are possibilities but relative long-shots. Dark horse possibilities include Alaska and I'll go out on a limb and say South Carolina because Lindsey Graham is just that unpopular. I don't think anywhere else is legitimately in play. Can't understand why the Democrats keep pushing Ossof in Georgia. He's a bland, thirty-something year old guy who has been nothing but a Congressional Staffer and then a documentary filmmaker for like a year or two. It just underscores how tone deaf the national Democratic party is to regional demographics.
 

JimEverett

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Right now if I had to pick I would say it ends up 51-49 in favor of Republicans.

I think Republicans pick up Alabama, the only other real chance Republicans have of picking up a seat is in Michigan and its not likely.
they lose Colorado, Arizona, and Maine

If Reublicans carry the SEnate it is likely by only the tiebreaker, 2, or 4 seats 50-50 to 52-48. But, depending on how the PResidential election plays out the Democrats could conceivably get to 55 seats (assuming Montana, Georgia, and Texas break for them - in addition to all the toss ups).
 

SaulGoodmanEsq

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I think Georgia is becoming more conservative and that the GOP will go 2 for 2 there (the special election will probably see a run-off between Collins and Loeffler). Even if Biden wins Texas (which probably won't happen), I still think Cornyn holds his seat. He is not as big a water-carrier for Trump as others. The 2018 race between O'Rourke and Cruz was close because even Republicans think Ted Cruz is a worm. And in a non-Presidential Election year a lot of GOP voters possibly sat that one out.
 
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