Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

superchuck500 · Jan 18, 2022

Russia continues to mass assets within range of Ukraine - though the official explanations are that they are for various exercises. United States intelligence has noted that Russian operatives in Ukraine could launch 'false flag' operations as a predicate to invasion. The West has pressed for negotiations and on Friday in Geneva, the US Sec. State Blinken will meet with the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Certainly the Russian movements evidence some plan - but what is it? Some analysts believe that Putin's grand scheme involves securing Western commitments that NATO would never expand beyond its current composition. Whether that means action in Ukraine or merely the movement of pieces on the chess board remains to be seen.

VIENNA — No one expected much progress from this past week’s diplomatic marathon to defuse the security crisis Russia has ignited in Eastern Europe by surrounding Ukraine on three sides with 100,000 troops and then, by the White House’s accounting, sending in saboteurs to create a pretext for invasion.

But as the Biden administration and NATO conduct tabletop simulations about how the next few months could unfold, they are increasingly wary of another set of options for President Vladimir V. Putin, steps that are more far-reaching than simply rolling his troops and armor over Ukraine’s border.

Mr. Putin wants to extend Russia’s sphere of influence to Eastern Europe and secure written commitments that NATO will never again enlarge. If he is frustrated in reaching that goal, some of his aides suggested on the sidelines of the negotiations last week, then he would pursue Russia’s security interests with results that would be felt acutely in Europe and the United States.

There were hints, never quite spelled out, that nuclear weapons could be shifted to places — perhaps not far from the United States coastline — that would reduce warning times after a launch to as little as five minutes, potentially igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

Russia Issues Subtle Threats More Far-Reaching Than a Ukraine Invasion

If the West fails to meet its security demands, Moscow could take measures like placing nuclear missiles close to the U.S. coastline, Russian officials have hinted.

www.nytimes.com

Blinken Will Meet With Russia as U.S. Pushes for More Diplomacy

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia in Geneva on Friday as the United States warns that Russia could soon attack Ukraine.

www.nytimes.com

How to think about war in Ukraine

Start with the Ukrainians

snyder.substack.com

Taurus · Dec 3, 2022

MT15 said:
And it should be noted that people using the Gish Gallop are not communicating genuinely. They know they are being disingenuous. They just don’t care.

Wiki:
“The Gish gallop /ˈɡɪʃ ˈɡæləp/ is a rhetorical technique in which a person in a debate attempts to overwhelm their opponent by providing an excessive number of arguments with no regard for the accuracy or strength of those arguments. In essence, it is prioritizing quantity of one's arguments at the expense of quality of said arguments.”

It's easier to spread manure than to clean it up.

Optimus Prime · Dec 6, 2022

Ever since Russia launched its brutal war in Ukraine the Kremlin has banked on American conservative political and media allies to weaken US support for Ukraine and deployed disinformation operations to falsify the horrors of the war for both US and Russian audiences, say disinformation experts.

Some of the Kremlin’s most blatant falsehoods about the war aimed at undercutting US aid for Ukraine have been promoted by major figures on the American right, from Holocaust denier and white supremacist Nick Fuentes to ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon and Fox News star Tucker Carlson, whose audience of millions is deemed especially helpful to Russian objectives.

On a more political track, House Republican Freedom Caucus members such as Paul Gosar, Marjorie Taylor Greene and Scott Perry – who in May voted with 54 other Republican members against a $40bn aid package for Ukraine, and have raised other concerns about the war – have proved useful, though perhaps unwitting, Kremlin allies at times…….

Top US conservatives pushing Russia’s spin on Ukraine war, experts say

Some of the Kremlin’s most blatant falsehoods aimed at undercutting US aid are promoted by major figures on the right

www.theguardian.com

Bigdaddysaints · Dec 7, 2022

Crazy there are people, especially politicians, who would rather side with Russia and Putin than with America because they don't like Biden/Democrats.

Optimus Prime · Dec 7, 2022

Bigdaddysaints said:
Crazy there are people, especially politicians, who would rather side with Russia and Putin than with America because they don't like Biden/Democrats.

Bigdaddysaints · Dec 8, 2022

Optimus Prime said:

if Republicans spoke what was on their minds, this is what would come out.

DaveXA · Dec 9, 2022

Bigdaddysaints said:
if Republicans spoke what was on their minds, this is what would come out.

I don't think that's true. Most Republicans I know, and I know quite a few, don't support Russia. Now, certainly they have no love for Biden, but wouldn't wear a shirt like that in the pic.

The party is still a mess tho. They sorely need a major leadership change and to revamp their platform and stop catering to the Q nut crowd.

samiam5211 · Dec 9, 2022

DaveXA said:
I don't think that's true. Most Republicans I know, and I know quite a few, don't support Russia. Now, certainly they have no love for Biden, but wouldn't wear a shirt like that in the pic.

The party is still a mess tho. They sorely need a major leadership change and to revamp their platform and stop catering to the Q nut crowd.

Yea, we shouldn't lump all Republicans in with the type of people who still fly confederate flags.

It's mostly the old confederacy, people who switched from Democrat to Republican in the decade or two after the civil rights act, that are the type who support Putin.

faceman · Dec 9, 2022

samiam5211 said:
Yea, we shouldn't lump all Republicans in with the type of people who still fly confederate flags.

It's mostly the old confederacy, people who switched from Democrat to Republican in the decade or two after the civil rights act, that are the type who support Putin.

It's a dated article, but McConnel says the Republican support for Putin is very small

Mitch McConnell: Republicans who support Putin ‘lonely voices’ in party

Senate minority leader however dodges invitation to say such Republicans should be ejected from party or face disciplinary measures

www.theguardian.com

bdb13 · Dec 9, 2022

samiam5211 said:
Yea, we shouldn't lump all Republicans in with the type of people who still fly confederate flags.

It's mostly the old confederacy, people who switched from Democrat to Republican in the decade or two after the civil rights act, that are the type who support Putin.

Was going to post something similar earlier but yeah you nailed it.

MT15 · Dec 9, 2022

faceman said:
It's a dated article, but McConnel says the Republican support for Putin is very small

Mitch McConnell: Republicans who support Putin ‘lonely voices’ in party
Senate minority leader however dodges invitation to say such Republicans should be ejected from party or face disciplinary measures
www.theguardian.com

They may be small in number but they are trying to take over the House right now.

SamAndreas · Dec 9, 2022

DaveXA said:
I don't think that's true. Most Republicans I know, and I know quite a few, don't support Russia. Now, certainly they have no love for Biden, but wouldn't wear a shirt like that in the pic.

The party is still a mess tho. They sorely need a major leadership change and to revamp their platform and stop catering to the Q nut crowd.

I know two Republicans, (they call themselves "conservatives") who do support Russia, and cut down Ukraine at every turn.

But I also know about eight Republicans who are pretty reasonable about their support for Ukraine.

It's the conspiracy theories that that they believe in that seem to make that difference. That and insisting that they aren't Republicans, instead being "conservatives." Not that I can see much of a difference because they vote for Republican all the same.

DaveXA · Dec 10, 2022

Bigdaddysaints · Dec 10, 2022

samiam5211 said:
Yea, we shouldn't lump all Republicans in with the type of people who still fly confederate flags.

It's mostly the old confederacy, people who switched from Democrat to Republican in the decade or two after the civil rights act, that are the type who support Putin.

you are correct, I used the wrong word. I should have used Trump supporter.

MT15 · Dec 11, 2022

DaveXA said:

I saw where Bolton said that Trump was actually offered a deal for the same swap that freed Griner, only it was for Whelan and he decided against it. Don’t know if this is accurate or not, but I don’t think Bolton is known for lying.

DaveXA · Dec 11, 2022

MT15 said:
I saw where Bolton said that Trump was actually offered a deal for the same swap that freed Griner, only it was for Whelan and he decided against it. Don’t know if this is accurate or not, but I don’t think Bolton is known for lying.

I don't think he goes out of his way to lie, but I do think he's long been self-serving with a lot of his comments in the past. That said, I tend to think he's on point in this case.

MT15 · Dec 11, 2022

DaveXA said:
I don't think he goes out of his way to lie, but I do think he's long been self-serving with a lot of his comments in the past. That said, I tend to think he's on point in this case.

That’s more than fair. I don’t even really fault Trump for turning the deal down at the time. I know it was said that Biden really wrestled with it.

That said, I do fault Trump for his ridiculous statements about the swap now.

SaulGoodmanEsq · Dec 11, 2022

The hilarious part is no one in the GOP or on the right was talking about Whelan until it became a useful tool to trash Biden. 99% of them probably had never even heard of him before.

DaveXA · Dec 11, 2022

MT15 said:
That’s more than fair. I don’t even really fault Trump for turning the deal down at the time. I know it was said that Biden really wrestled with it.

That said, I do fault Trump for his ridiculous statements about the swap now.

Agreed.

Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? (1 Viewer)

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