Senate Election Thread (1 Viewer)

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    What is telling is that at NO POINT was Biden and Trump even.

    Late april/early may the gap closed to within polling error margins ( usually 3 +/- ) and then WHAM

    Then you look at Clinton with no less than 6 separate times being even.

    It makes you wonder what could have been if Biden had run in 2016 (I fully understand why he didn't). He's just the right guy to go against Trumpism.
     
    It makes you wonder what could have been if Biden had run in 2016 (I fully understand why he didn't). He's just the right guy to go against Trumpism.


    I think it would have been closer, but i really think that the GOP base was so energized coming off Obama, that it was going to be tough sledding for any Democrat. Maybe would have solidified the independent vote, but still would have been tough.

    What you see now is a country after 4 years of Trump at the helm. Honestly, i am surprised its this close. I guess GOP voters still will tote the company line as far out into the water as they can before they sink. Continental shelf be damned.
     
    I'll put it here. But the House is looking like a lock to stay Democrat.


    93 out of 100 scenarios, the Democrats retain control.

    The senate is closer. 67 out of 100 scenarios give the Democrats Senate control.


    And their momentum is increasing a bit.

    1602089938642.png
     
    I'll put it here. But the House is looking like a lock to stay Democrat.


    93 out of 100 scenarios, the Democrats retain control.

    The senate is closer. 67 out of 100 scenarios give the Democrats Senate control.


    And their momentum is increasing a bit.

    1602089938642.png

    I think the Cunningham situation is going to shift that, but I still think the Dems can get it to 50-50 which gives them the Senate if Biden wins.
     
    It makes you wonder what could have been if Biden had run in 2016 (I fully understand why he didn't). He's just the right guy to go against Trumpism.

    Absolutely. Biden would have won easily. I understand as well, but I suspect he regrets not running. Hillary was the worst possible candidate at the worst possible time. I'll never understand the DNC's thinking. That was just a bungled election all the way around.
     
    Absolutely. Biden would have won easily. I understand as well, but I suspect he regrets not running. Hillary was the worst possible candidate at the worst possible time. I'll never understand the DNC's thinking. That was just a bungled election all the way around.
    Big reason why the DNC shook up leadership, right? I also know they were changing their focus to more down ballot elections too.
     
    Absolutely. Biden would have won easily. I understand as well, but I suspect he regrets not running. Hillary was the worst possible candidate at the worst possible time. I'll never understand the DNC's thinking. That was just a bungled election all the way around.
    There would have been a three-way race for the nomination that I think was likely to split fairly evenly three different ways.. ultimately I think Hillary would have been the nominee anyways and Biden would be a weaker candidate today having lost the 2016 nomination to her. Jmo.
     
    Big reason why the DNC shook up leadership, right? I also know they were changing their focus to more down ballot elections too.

    Yeah, Debbie Wasserman-Schulz was pushed out over the email leaked that made it look like the DNC was in cahoots with the Clinton campaign to try and marginalize the Sanders campaign. I think Donna Brazile replaced her. That was a bad look and I think they lost a lot of the Sanders supporters because of that.

    Had Biden run, I think that never would have happened.

    This is going off of memory, so the details are a bit fuzzy, but I think that was the gist of it.
     
    There would have been a three-way race for the nomination that I think was likely to split fairly evenly three different ways.. ultimately I think Hillary would have been the nominee anyways and Biden would be a weaker candidate today having lost the 2016 nomination to her. Jmo.

    Sanders would have won a 3 way because Biden and Clinton would have split pretty evenly imo. But, I think if Biden had run, I suspect he would have been able to pull more votes than Hillary. I don't see Hillary winning in that 3 way contest. Possible, but I think the DNC would have been more hands off with Biden competing.
     
    Yeah, Debbie Wasserman-Schulz was pushed out over the email leaked that made it look like the DNC was in cahoots with the Clinton campaign to try and marginalize the Sanders campaign. I think Donna Brazile replaced her. That was a bad look and I think they lost a lot of the Sanders supporters because of that.

    Had Biden run, I think that never would have happened.

    This is going off of memory, so the details are a bit fuzzy, but I think that was the gist of it.

    That's about what happened, Clinton also added DWS to her campaign after she had to step down. That was such a horrible misstep with no conceivable upside. It's kind of funny Biden is running to the right of HRC, but is more embraced by progessives, and Bernie. I think some of that is how bad progressives view the Trump presidency. The other though is Biden's less antagonistic stance towards progressives.

    P.S. Clinton still throws shade at progressives, and Bernie over her failed campaign. I don't think she ever got over it. It's hilarious she blames the voters/Bernie, and not herself. It's a good example of bad leadership, and what a dumpster fire for the left her presidency would have been.
     
    Sanders would have won a 3 way because Biden and Clinton would have split pretty evenly imo. But, I think if Biden had run, I suspect he would have been able to pull more votes than Hillary. I don't see Hillary winning in that 3 way contest. Possible, but I think the DNC would have been more hands off with Biden competing.
    I think Hillary would have won when it went to the convention since it's likely imo no one would have had enough delegates to win the nomination outright.. I think it was Hillary's "turn" and they were rolling with her as the nominee if at all possible.

    Though I certainly could be wrong and none of it matters much now anyways.
     
    Sanders would have won a 3 way because Biden and Clinton would have split pretty evenly imo. But, I think if Biden had run, I suspect he would have been able to pull more votes than Hillary. I don't see Hillary winning in that 3 way contest. Possible, but I think the DNC would have been more hands off with Biden competing.

    Only if Sanders could've figured out a way to get a black person to vote for him.

    Why he failed so miserably at that twice in a row is a mystery to me. He's walked the walk for 40 years of supporting the little guy, supporting civil rights and economic fairness.
    There's just something about him...
     
    P.S. Clinton still throws shade at progressives, and Bernie over her failed campaign. I don't think she ever got over it. It's hilarious she blames the voters/Bernie, and not herself. It's a good example of bad leadership, and what a dumpster fire for the left her presidency would have been.

    ... as opposed to the panacea we live in today? Wouldn't you like to be living in that dumpster fire today?

    I'll let Bill Maher make the case.

     
    I saw these side-by-side this morning. No two elections are ever the same. Yes, Clinton had a polling lead that didn't bear on the electoral result. But also Biden vs. Trump polling is different than Clinton vs. Trump polling.


    1602084097145.png


    1602084110356.png
    First, these graphs are not on the same scale. Yes, Biden is a couple of points ahead of Clinton. But Trump hasn’t really moved from 42-44%.

    Second, national polling is useful but I don’t pay much attention to it because the popular vote doesn’t matter. State polling and EC are what matters. I’ve also posted why I think Biden will need to be +5 in state polls in order to win.

    I think this is a hard to predict election because of Covid.
     
    I think the Cunningham situation is going to shift that, but I still think the Dems can get it to 50-50 which gives them the Senate if Biden wins.
    Ted Cuz was on Hannity last night and basically said a Trump win means the Senate stay R, a Biden win means the Senate goes D. I think it’s destined for 50-50 and whoever has the bigger coattails will determine the Senate.

     
    First, these graphs are not on the same scale. Yes, Biden is a couple of points ahead of Clinton. But Trump hasn’t really moved from 42-44%.

    Second, national polling is useful but I don’t pay much attention to it because the popular vote doesn’t matter. State polling and EC are what matters. I’ve also posted why I think Biden will need to be +5 in state polls in order to win.

    I think this is a hard to predict election because of Covid.

    Yeah I hesitated because the timeline isn’t clear on one of them.

    And I agree that national polls are mostly meaningless.
     

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