Republicans moving ahead with Trump’s ‘big’ bill of tax breaks (2 Viewers)

[zztop]

Republicans moving ahead with Trump's 'big' bill of tax breaks and spending cuts amid tariff uproar

After a long wait, the Senate is launching action on President Donald Trump’s ”“big, beautiful bill” of tax breaks and spending cuts.

apnews.com

More than a month after House Republicans surprised Washington by advancing their framework for Trump’s $4.5 trillion in tax breaks and $2 trillion in spending cuts, Senate Republicans voted Thursday to start working on their version. The largely party-line vote, 52-48, sets the stage for a potential Senate all-nighter Friday spilling into the weekend.

 

[MT15]

So it came down to Murkowski, and she folded. Even so they had to have Vance break the tie. This is for everyone who supports this abomination.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

So it came down to Murkowski, and she folded. Even so they had to have Vance break the tie. This is for everyone who supports this abomination.

Some people are born without the neurological capacity for empathy. It's rare, but it happens. Some people have empathy emotionally and/or psychically beaten out of them as infants and toddlers. That doesn't make them evil, but it does mean that we have to take a different approach in guiding them on how to be a positive member of society.

Empathy based guidance doesn't work. "How would you feel if someone did that to you" does not work with someone who doesn't have empathy. Children who don't have empathy can be easily identified by around the age of 3. We should actively screen for all children without empathy so that we can teach and guide them in a way that's effective, nurturing and kind. To not do that is bad for them and for society.

 

[SamAndreas]

Today I noticed several news outlets trying to drum up some more clicks by running articles about the possibility that the House will fail to reconcile the two versions into one. I decided to find out the statistical odds of that happening using Grok the AI.

Over the last 25 years the two bodies have failed to reconcile, and as thus have killed the bill 10% of the time when all budget bills were considered where reconciliation failed.

Notable amoung them was the time when John McCain saved Obamacare with a thumbs down.

A 10% failure rate is the good news.

The bad news is when only bills similar to this ugly one are considered, that failure rate reduces down to 0% of the time over the last 25 years.

That doesn't mean there's no hope. , The sistical degree of hope is somewhere between 10% down to 0%



Here's a link to the Using AI thread if you want to see the work, and details of that AI session I had with Grok today.

How to use AI

In creating this thread I intend to show all of you what I've discovered so far about using AI. The intention is not that I'm the expert sayings how it is.This thread is a discussion thread open to all to add their opinions and examples of about how to best use this new tool.I will explain...

madaboutpolitics.com

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

Today I noticed several news outlets trying to drum up some more clicks by running articles about the possibility that the House will fail to reconcile the two versions into one. I decided to find out the statistical odds of that happening using Grok the AI.

In all sincerity, you're starting to sound like a spokesperson for AI. Also, what you just did is 100% speculation assisted by AI.

 

[SamAndreas]

In all sincerity, you're starting to sound like a spokesperson for AI. Also, what you just did is 100% speculation assisted by AI.

No, What we did was not speculation.

The first step we dealt with was to organize the complete data set using standard descriptive inference methods, and then we calculated the statistical inference creating what in essence are odds of an event happening, then we duplicated that previous work this time only using only elements of that complete data set to populate a refined data set which was as closely matched to the current big ugly bill as was possible. The complete data set had 20 elements, the closely matched gata set had 8 elements.

From that I expressed the odds based on past performances, the complete data set gave us 10% odds, the closely matched set gave us 0% odds, I would set the resultant odds at 2.5% but as I recall when I stated it in my post I didn't hone that last part to 2.5%, I expressed it as an interval instead from 0% to 10%

Parts that Grok and I did together I expressed as we did.... Parts I did alone I expressed as I did ... .

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

No, What we did was not speculation.

Placing odds on something happening within a complex human system is speculation and nothing but speculation.

 

[SamAndreas]

Placing odds on something happening within a complex human system is speculation and nothing but speculation.

Are you going to tell me that the moon is made of Lincolnshire Poacher cheese next? Well are you???

As you can see it looks kind of like the moon, but the moon isn't made of Lincolnshire.

No, it's made of Caerphilly:

Brits don't like that a bit because it's Welsh cheese.

 

[LA 2 L.A.]

Are you going to tell me that the moon is made of Lincolnshire Poacher cheese next? Well are you???

As you can see it looks kind of like the moon, but the moon isn't made of Lincolnshire.

No, it's made of Caerphilly:

Brits don't like that a bit because it's Welsh cheese.

Today I noticed several news outlets trying to drum up some more clicks by running articles about the possibility that the House will fail to reconcile the two versions into one. I decided to find out the statistical odds of that happening using Grok the AI.

The House failing to reconcile with the Senate version of the budget bill is a complex human system. That is a fact.

It's a fact that trying to assign statistical odds too a complex human system is speculation.

Nothing I said had anything to do with cheese, but it was a direct response to what you yourself said you did.

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[Optimus Prime]

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) pushed back hard Wednesday on the notion that Republicans always caved to President Donald Trump’s demands amid mounting pressure from the White House for House Republicans to fall in line in supporting the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."

“The president of the United States didn't give us an assignment,” Orden said Wednesday, reported Kenzie Nguyen with Punchbowl News. “We're not a bunch of little b------ around here, okay?”..........

House Republican snaps with curse-laden retort over party's Trump loyalty

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) pushed back hard Wednesday on the notion that Republicans always caved to President Donald Trump’s demands amid mounting pressure from the White House for House Republicans to fall in line in supporting the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."“The president of the United...

www.rawstory.com

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[Optimus Prime]

 

[coldseat]

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) pushed back hard Wednesday on the notion that Republicans always caved to President Donald Trump’s demands amid mounting pressure from the White House for House Republicans to fall in line in supporting the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."

“The president of the United States didn't give us an assignment,” Orden said Wednesday, reported Kenzie Nguyen with Punchbowl News. “We're not a bunch of little b------ around here, okay?”..........

House Republican snaps with curse-laden retort over party's Trump loyalty

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) pushed back hard Wednesday on the notion that Republicans always caved to President Donald Trump’s demands amid mounting pressure from the White House for House Republicans to fall in line in supporting the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."“The president of the United...

www.rawstory.com

The little bitches are running scared and are mad and self conscious that everybody is expecting that they will do whatever their Daddy tells them.

 

[coldseat]

Yes, we already know Chaffetz that you guys are a political party of cucks. I swear I've never seen such weakness and patheticness before.

 

[Huntn]

I agree that China is now out-innovating us in some areas, but their huge advances came by theft. They are like mafiosos that stole their way into wealth and then started creating real businesses. I’m not familiar with China’s EV innovations, but I’ve heard they are making good and inexpensive EVs. Battery tech is another of China’s advances that got a head start with theft, but now they are innovating themselves. China has done more to weaken American than anything else, because of their theft, job losses, and support for our adversaries. They’re also causing us to spend more on our military. Tech bros have brought prosperity, even as their zealous greed creates danger for our system of government. So we face many dangers, but I think China is our biggest and most insidious threat.

I don’t think you see the big picture here. 1980 was the decade where productivity started outpacing US worker income. This was by design or if you prefer it was by an inability to come to terms with an economic design to cannibalize US markets to reap as much profit out of it as possible before the inevitable collapse

The West, primarily USA created China, to be specific our capitalists created China.They said we will give you our manufacturing jobs, you take the pollution, reap the rewards and feed us, with cheap goods.

We’ll take care our disenfranchised workers by feeding them Kool-Aid about how it’s impossible to give them the good life due to the generous social cost that we created by shipping 20m jobs plus high paying jobsout of the country. And now China is exceedingly wealthy as the money for science and research as we cut ours.

Gotta keep those profits up baby for, the B’s and lesser extent the M’s.. We’ll make noises about bring manufacturing back, but we all know that’s not gonna happen because that cost us our profits.I mean, why do that infrastructure is already set up in China we’ve got workforce of experienced people are willing to work for less than American workers. And now we’re in the process of chopping our social safety nuts cause we just can’t afford those anymore. It’s time to wake up and smell the roses, dude, we’re screwed.

 

[Huntn]

Too many in the U.S. have forgotten that staying at the forefront of innovation depends on one crucial foundation: education. And not just education for those who can afford it—but for everyone. Many of the world’s most successful inventors and entrepreneurs came from humble backgrounds. Growing up with limited money and fewer options taught them to think differently. That lack of resources often fueled their creativity and forced them to find smart, unconventional ways to achieve their goals.

By providing all children with access to quality education, it will unlock the kind of ingenuity that drives real progress.

GOP: Sorry we just can’t afford that. You see, public education just cost too much.

 

[Huntn]

Huntn, if I'm not mistaken Rivendell, where you live, is just a wee bit north of San Francisco isn't it?

I think I've heard that the folks there keep stealing the highway road signs marking the place, such that it's a hard place for outsiders to find.

The Rivendell I live in is just in my mind from a story I’ve read repeatedly since childhood.

 

[Huntn]

This bill, when it passes, barring something crazy in the actual voting process, will re-energize Democratic party for 2026. Screwing with peoples healthcare will come back to bite them.

Pain is the key to breaking Reverse-MAGA and this is so ironic.
Scooped from today’s (my) interpreted news:

GOzP Holdouts fall in line agreeing to hold vote on the Big Beautiful Self Mutilation bill
Hidden in the massive bomb is a provision to declare “Pain” the official song of the Party to be played at the start of every meeting of the Trump Reich requiring loyal members to stand, dance, and sing fervently.

House GOP holdouts fall in line, agree to bring Trump agenda to floor — CNN

A group of House Republican holdouts fell in line behind President Donald Trump and agreed to allow his agenda to come to the floor — reversing course after days of threatening to block the bill from a final vote.

apple.news